兵临城下
F-16Vs headed to Taiwan region; expert says incapable of shifting cross-Straits air power balance_我的网站
一 |
Illustration: Xia Qing/GTRecent media attention has focused on Taiwan region's purchase of 66 F-16V (Blk 70) fighter jets from the US, the first two of which are now en route to the island. A mainland expert said the induction of these jets cannot change the cross-Straits air power balance. Their performance is comparable to the PLA's J-10C, but against the likes of J-16, J-20 and J-35, their tactical value is limited. The real gap, however, is not in individual aircraft, but in the PLA's already mature air combat system.
Taiwan region is beginning to receive the first operational aircraft from its 66-jet F-16V Block 70 order, reported Defence Security Asia on Saturday. The first two single-seat fighters, serials 6727 and 6728, departed the US on August 17, 2026, transited through Fort Worth and Hawaii, and were expected to continue through Guam before reaching Chihhang Air Base, weather permitting.
In addition to purchasing brand-new fighters, Taiwan region had previously cooperated with the US to upgrade 140 F-16A/B aircraft to the F-16V (Blk 20) standard. That upgrade work was fully completed in December 2023, according to CNA on August 19.
Taiwan region previously claimed that the F-16V (Blk 70), in addition to featuring increased thrust, airframe optimizations, extended range, and conformal fuel tanks, also enhances beyond-visual-range combat capability and partial stealth characteristics. It is equipped with an Active Electronically Scanned Array (AESA) radar, providing multiple functions including air-to-air search, tracking, weapons guidance, electronic warfare, and communications, according to the HK01.
The F-16V (Blk 70) is the newest variant of the F-16 family, Song Zhongping, a mainland military affairs expert, told the Global Times on Sunday. The PLA's mainstay fighters have already been widely equipped with AESA radars and are at the same technological generation as the F-16V (Blk 70). In comparison with the J-10C, both fall into the light-to-medium fighter category and have a degree of comparability.
However, comparing to a heavy fighter such as the J-16, and especially when facing fifth-generation aircraft like the J-20 and J-35 that possess a clear generational advantage, the F-16V has no edge at all. Constrained by its original medium-weight, single-engine design, the F-16V faces inherent gaps versus heavy fighters in range, payload, and upgrade potential, Song explained.
The expert pointed out that what decides victory or defeat is no longer the performance of individual aircraft, but the entire combat system behind them.
Modern warfare is no longer a matter of "soldier versus soldier, general versus general." The PLA's advantage lies in its comprehensively overwhelming system-of-systems combat capability. It is not necessary to shoot down an F-16V in the air, it can also be destroyed on the ground, by striking its shelters or cratering runways so that it cannot take off or land, Song said.
The F-16V does improve Taiwan region's individual aircraft capabilities, but once integrated into a system-of-systems combat environment, its ability to alter the overall situation is extremely limited, said Song.
A Xinhua News Agency report in March 2026 described how a certain PLA Air Force unit organized its three mainstay fighters, the J-20, J-16 and J-10C, to conduct multi-day-and-night air combat confrontation training covering situation sharing, coordinated strikes, electromagnetic countermeasures, and other subjects.
The Taiwan regional authorities' attempt to rely on these F-16Vs to "resist reunification by force" is no different from a mantis trying to stop a chariot, Song said.
From August 5 to 14, the Taiwan regional authorities conducted this year's "Han Kuang" military exercises. A CCTV News report on August 14 noted that the Taiwan region's Han Kuang exercises have become an annual farce. The entire exercise was plagued by continuous controversies.
The so-called "Han Kuang" exercises have always been a hollow, wasteful spectacle. The Democratic Progressive Party authorities are hereby warned: the "Taiwan independence" dead end leads nowhere and cannot be altered. The PLA remains on high alert around the clock, continuously enhancing its combat readiness against separatist and external interference activities. It is, and will always be, the solid foundation for safeguarding national sovereignty and territorial integrity, and for maintaining peace and stability across the Taiwan Straits, Senior Colonel Chen Xi, a spokesperson for the Ministry of National Defense, said on August 14.
。 这阵子，国际局势的浪花翻涌，不少人都在关注着美国海军的动向。最近，《国会山报》一句犀利的问题，更是让人坐不住了：特朗普到底为什么对美国海军宣战？这句话背后，牵扯着好几件耐人寻味的事情，如同漂浮在海面上的冰山，露出水面的只是个开始。 最让人困惑的，莫过于特朗普对福特级航母后续舰的蒸汽弹射系统改造要求。8月13日，他突然下令，要求将多里斯·米勒号的电磁弹射系统改回老旧的蒸汽弹射。这并非一时兴起，紧接着他又不断宣称要在彻底击败伊朗后，将霍尔木兹海峡宣布为美国领土，甚至还在白宫地图上圈出了这片海域，然后大声宣告：这是真的！ 这种自信满满的表态，总让人觉得有些与众不同。 霍尔木兹海峡，可不是随便就能拿下的停车位。它像一条连接东西方贸易的生命线，全球能源运输都依赖于它的畅通。如果这条通道受阻，能源价格飞涨，各国经济都会受到波及，影响之大，难以估量。油轮在海峡中穿梭，航运公司的账单，沿岸国家不得不考虑的政治稳定，这些现实因素，可不会因为总统的一句话就发生改变。伊朗的回应也直截了当：霍尔木兹海峡不可能靠一条推文、一艘航母、一项命令或一次竞选演讲就‘拿下’。这段对话其实点出了口号式地缘政治的本质问题。你可以用华丽的辞藻营造气势，但对海上通道的真正控制，需要的是长期的、稳定的、可持续的实际能力，需要一套完善的规则体系。国会山报用向海军宣战这样的措辞，并非危言耸听，而是提醒我们，海军需要承担前线的风险，保持航线的安全，而总统的目光却始终游离在如何让前线更轻松之外，反而将焦点放在了我宣布这块归我的政治姿态上。 对那些在甲板上挥洒汗水的军人们来说，这种表态并非减轻了压力，反而像是增加了任务的难度，还切断了后路。更让人尴尬的是，白宫内部的消息传出，这些表态事先并没有经过高级顾问的充分讨论，被形容为开玩笑。可玩笑不能随便说，更不能反复。政治玩笑一旦被重复、被画进地图、被公开固化，就会演变成一种外交上的既成事实的假象，迫使军方在海上用更高的姿态去配合总统的台词。
二 | 到最后，承担这笑话成本的，往往是那些默默坚守在航母甲板下的人们。再来看看蒸汽弹射怀旧梦的背后。
三 | 特朗普的命令并非只是单纯地倒退技术，而是体现在对军费开销上。海军花费了十几年时间，将福特级航母的弹射系统升级为电磁弹射，旨在解决老系统维护、人力需求和新机型适配等一系列现实问题。参议员凯恩等公开致信，强调海军转向EMALS是为了更精确的控制、更广泛的机型适配、更低的维护成本和更少的人力需求。电磁弹射，并不是新潮玩具，而是为了在战斗力与后勤保障之间找到平衡点。
四 | 更重要的是，工程已经进行了大半，贸然更改方案，就如同把正在装修的房子推倒重来，结果往往不是更坚固，而是更昂贵、更耗时。 麻烦远不止于弹射系统。据报道，海军还在评估调整福特级航母舰岛位置的可能性，仅仅因为总统对航母外观更接近二战时期的偏好。要知道，航母这种复杂的系统，哪怕一个小小的位置调整，也会牵一发而动全身：飞行甲板调度、雷达通信、烟气气流、管线布局、施工工序，无一不受到影响。这绝非单纯的审美问题，而是直接关系到作战效率和安全。说到黄金舰队计划，这更是令人咋舌。这个计划要打造核动力战列舰编队，配备高超音速武器、轨道炮、激光等一系列前沿科技，预算高达2750亿美元。
五 | 国会预算办公室的报告指出，建造一艘首舰就得花费230多亿美元，后续舰艇平均价格也高达180亿美元。这样的成本，连福特级航母的单舰造价都难以比拟，与其说是复古，不如说是把最贵几个字写在了舰艏上。 报告中还明确指出，工业基础的限制和系统集成风险是主要障碍。
六 | 将如此多的先进系统塞进一艘战舰，不仅会增加复杂性，还会推高成本。
七 | 更重要的是，造船产能和建造能力也面临着现实的瓶颈。这就像在缺工、缺产线、缺经验的情况下，强行打造一批概念车，还要求按期交付。 美国国内的反对此计划的声音也越来越大，民主党参议员默克利等质疑在家庭负担日益加重的情况下，投入数千亿美元建设战列舰是否合理。《纽约时报》等媒体也提出了类似的疑问：这个计划能否真正开工、能走多远，都还是未知数。 这正是美国政治中永恒存在的问题：国防项目从来不是单纯的军事决策，它还需要考虑选票、产业、财政等多重因素。特朗普把战列舰包装成黄金舰队，名字听起来很响亮，但若仔细分析，却能看到赤裸裸的财政缺口。 所以，《国会山报》那句为什么要对美国海军宣战，并非哗众取宠，而是发出了一个深刻的提醒：当政治叙事越来越像短视频，依赖快速传播和视觉冲击，那么，那些依靠长期主义撑起来的专业机构，还能否保持独立思考的能力，还能否被允许依据工程逻辑和作战需求来做决策？今天的【烽火点评】就到这里，期待与大家在下期节目再次相见。返回，查看更多。
Current article:http://3chnb.zhuangnaorunjingzhabao.sbs/d431/20260826/4058.html
Published on:01:04:29
